The rally which got underway
on many world stock indices in mid-July will face its biggest test
late this week, or early next.
I had expected the astrological conditions
unfolding during that time were sufficiently negative to mark a
likely bottom from which a cyclical rally lasting at least one to
three months could develop.
However, I now need to reconsider
that scenario.
In last week’s World report,
I indicated that technical contradictions, combined with the astrological
conditions, suggested stock indices “should sink to retest
the July Lows”.
I immediately qualified that statement
in the second paragraph of the report, saying: “…there
is one indicator which points to an imminent and massive intervention
by Wall Street’s Plunge Protection Team to goose the American
indices higher.”
I also reported there had been a small
change in an indicator known as the McClellan Oscillator the previous
Friday and that small changes in that indicator “usually
foretell a sudden and large price movement within two or three days”.
On Tuesday, day two after the small
change, we got the massive intervention by the PPT and a large price
jump which recovered three days of losses in a few hours.
On Friday, the PPT appears to have
intervened again in a very determined bid to push this rally higher
– and the technical readings which warn of potential further
intervention continue to exist.
At this stage, the fact that volume
was lower on this thrust higher than at either of the two previous
thrusts on July 23 and July 30 is irrelevant.
As I said last week: “The
Americans have a saying: “Don’t fight the Fed”.
Knowing the conditions now exist for the Fed’s proxy, the
PPT, to intervene to manipulate Wall Street higher, we have a dangerous
situation … technical charts and astrology which suggest another
downleg before a firm bottom is in place opposed to a high probability
of official intervention to try to stop it from happening.”
That situation continues. The PPT
has been known to play this game for weeks at a time, using its
buying power before the open to force the Futures markets higher
so that anyone who is shorting the market scrambles desperately
to get out of the PPT’s way.
I also indicated in last week’s
report that if the American indices were vulnerable to further downside
testing of the July Low, it was a “double ditto” scenario
for the FTSE and the ASX.
I was wrong about the FTSE and right
about the ASX. In purely technical terms, the ASX behaved with impeccable
manners.
I said of the ASX: “All
of this leaves the 200 vulnerable to another downleg, unless it
can rally immediately and decisively.
We should not be too concerned,
however, if that occurs … because the new Low will, at worst,
break only marginally below July and will cement a strong bottom
in place to allow for a longer, cyclical rally to develop, even
if it’s a slow grind higher.”
The ASX did not “rally immediately
and decisively” last Monday. It had a weak day –
and that was followed by a big gap down on Tuesday which broke
“only marginally below July”.
The break was sufficient to take the
index a little below the ideal 4772 price level marking a perfect
Fibonacci retracement – a target I’ve been indicating
needed to be hit so that a cyclical rally could develop.
The ASX has now fulfilled the criteria
necessary and is – in all probability – engaged in building
a base.
It will, of course, be whipped around
by any shenanigans on Wall Street, but I am at least a little encouraged
by the fact the ASX has behaved so precisely.
Astrologically
We are entering another high-energy zone – with Venus due
to conjunct Saturn late this week, Mars squaring Pluto next weekend
as we get the Lunar eclipse (conjunct Neptune) matched to the recent
Solar eclipse, and the Sun opposing Neptune.
Any one of these three can move the
markets in a big way; the combination of all three happening virtually
simultaneously with an eclipsed Full Moon compounds that potential.
The next major astrological events
are in early September, when Jupiter and Pluto both go Direct again
– and that coincides with the second of Jupiter’s three
Earth trines to Saturn, the first of which put a stop to the January
price plunge.
Technically, there are cycle and Fibonacci
dates clustering in the period from the 14th to the 20th.
The next major Fibonacci date is not
until the third week of September, suggesting any market turn which
begins late this week or by the middle of next week will continue
running until then.
Oil and gold have both declined to
levels which suggest a rebound higher is now becoming imminent –
even if those rebounds are just short-term relief rallies within
a larger correction.
AUSTRALIA
ASX 200 [click
to view the chart and download the entire Adobe PDF file]
We’ll start our technical round-up
with the ASX 200, which is likely to bounce higher on Monday, following
Wall Street’s Friday spurt.
We can see last Monday’s weak
performance did indeed leave the index vulnerable to another drop
– the big gap down on Tuesday which broke to 4758 before recovering
to keep its head above our Support line.
This chart is likely to be altered
by Monday’s performance, but for the moment we can see the
last two thrusts higher have been weaker than the initial rally
out of the July bottom.
If this pattern had shown up on the
DJI and the S&P 500, virtually all Western stock markets would
now be looking at a cyclical rally lasting from 45 to 90 days.
.....CLICK
HERE to download the FULL version of this report with all technical
charts and further comments. (PDF format)
The World At Large is delivered in advance to Astrological
Investing Premium Member subscribers. Randall Ashbourne
is a former journalist and political strategist residing in Australia.
*QHT Technical Charts created using Quick
Harmonic Trader Software, by P.A.S. Astro-Soft, Inc. makers
of Galactic Investor Astrology software.
***
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