The World at Large - February 9 & 10, 2008
by Randall Ashbourne
We will dispense this week with the normal
format while I try to give a big picture overview of where we’re
at and, more importantly, where we may be heading.
- We may have entered a particularly nasty Bear
market that could run for another five
years.
- We may be in a nasty secondary correction
within an ongoing primary Bull market.
- No-one can, this weekend, be 100% certain
which of those two scenarios applies.
- Absolutely regardless of whether 1
or 2 is the case, markets worldwide are
very likely to rally strongly within the next 3 months, probably
within the next
few weeks.
- Before that intermediate-term rally begins
to be as near as we can get to "a sure
thing", we may all have to suffer through another sudden
plunge.
As far as is possible, we need to put bias, emotion
and media misinformation aside and pay attention only to the charts.
To make things clear, I want to state that I do
have a personal bias - and it is in favour of Scenario 2; that we
are in a nasty secondary correction within an ongoing Bull market.
In the past few weeks I have explained through discussions
of both the longer-term astrology and the fundamental shift in economic
power from Euro-America to Asia and India why I believe the market
turmoil since late last year is a massive head-fake.
However, it is also true that the financial problems created by
the grossly incompetent and completely unprincipled Masters of the
Universe have the potential to create a total collapse of the world’s
biggest banks and financial institutions.
It is simple fact that if it were not for the mega-billions
hurriedly supplied by the US Federal Reserve and the mega-billions
supplied by sovereign wealth funds from Arabia to Singapore several
of those banks would have no cash.
Not one cent. Zilch. Diddly squat. They’d
be bankrupt, broke, doors closed, out of business.
That’s how serious the problem is.
These Masters of the Universe, of course, never
learn anything. At a time when rebuilding confidence in the Western
world’s financial system is of paramount importance, these
twerps are still playing juvenile games of imagined brinkmanship
-
issuing self-important downgrades of each other.
One of the leading ratings agencies which slapped
its AAA-rating on toxic sludge a firstyear accounting student -
with principles - wouldn’t put an F on has even threatened
to downgrade the USA itself to less than AAA status if it has to
undergo an inquiry into its practices.
At the moment, we are poised on the brink - we
face a total financial collapse in much of Euro-America, or the
system has to be bailed-out so that some value is restored to assets
to allow for a more orderly dispersal.
No-one in their right mind throws perfectly good
babies out with the dirty bath water, so the sane, rational, common-sense
solution leans heavily towards the bail-out at any cost side of
the equation.
Which means this ... the price of assets, virtually
all assets, needs to be forced back up to levels which ease the
capital reserve demands on the banks and frees up some ready cash.
As I indicated last week, even in Bear markets
there are strong, upward rallies if for no other reason than the
big money boys make damn sure they happen so they can unload more
of their crud to the suckers.
I believe that will turn out to be the worst-case
scenario. The best-case scenario is that in trying to restore the
appearance of stability, in creating situations where distressed
assets can be offloaded to strong hands who can afford to take a
long-term view of what those assets will be worth in 20 years, rather
than next month, we may actually create the reality of stability,
leaving the way open for another leg of a long-running Bull.
We will be able to extract a more realistic view
of Bull or Bear by the way markets worldwide react to that rally.
In the meantime, we are still in the stages of trying to determine
when that rally will begin.
And, also, how deeply markets might plunge before
they decide to stop flip-flopping.
In the USA it is options expiry week, which often
produces high volatility; Australia is in the middle of a reporting
season, with the Commonwealth Bank due to report this week, following
the National Australia Bank’s results last week.
As we will see on the charts, the various indices
are trading in a narrow band, currently testing the downside edges
from which they will either bounce, or fall through to retest the
January Lows - perhaps even putting in a marginally lower Low as
we’ll see the DJT put in before launching itself on a very
strong rally.
However, before we go to the charts, let’s
review the Astrology at work.
Astrologically
Worldwide indices plunged from late December into
very Bearish Lows on January 22/23, which was quite precise timing
with the first of a series of Jupiter trine Saturn aspects involving
the Earth signs Capricorn and Virgo.
We’ve discussed this one at length since
January 12th, including the findings of Kaye Shinker’s considerable
research over the years which ties conjunctions and oppositions
of Jupiter and Saturn to economic recessions.
From Kaye’s extensive research and testing
- and from the technical behaviour of the various indices since
that first trine happened on January 21st - we can have a reasonable
expectation that market low point was very, very significant.
The next significant aspect was Venus, the planet
which symbolises money, moving first to trine Saturn and then to
conjunct Jupiter - the meeting of the lesser and greater Benefic,
as Venus and Jupiter were known in ancient times.
That period, finishing February 1st, was when
most indices hit their short-term peak - although it flowed over
into Monday’s spike on the ASX.
From that peak, indices fell again last week into
the Solar Eclipse in Aquarius, the sign which has rulership over
stock markets and company profits.
That eclipse happened during the ASX trading hours,
virtually on the midpoint of a mundane sextile between Venus and
Uranus, the latter of which has rulership of Aquarius.
The ASX 200 stopped falling within minutes of
both the Moon and Mercury hitting the exact midpoint of the sextile...and
continued rising the next day.
Three significant geocentric aspects occur this
coming week, beginning with the Sun conjunct Neptune just after
midday Monday on the ASX - to be followed by a Venus inconjunct
with Mars a couple of hours before the close of Wednesday trading
in New
York and a Sun trine to Mars not long after the New York open on
Thursday.
It is the Sun-Neptune conjunction which has the
most potential to symbolise a significant turning point, perhaps
especially in oil prices since Neptune has rulership over Pisces.
Since the markets have been retesting the lower
edge of their most recent trading band, it could signify a turnaround
to go back up and retest the upper limits of the band.
The trine to Mars tends to suggest a positive
mood, although the real meaning of a trine is the rapid removal
of impediments - ie: if markets are making a real attempt to break
through a restriction, the obstacles will suddenly disappear. But,
if they’re trying
desperately to hold their head above water, it’s the buoyancy
which suddenly disappears.
The following week, Venus moves into Aquarius
and Mercury resumes Direct motion – and it’s the combination
of those two in close proximity which just might give us a clear
rally.
To
Read more: Download the entire PDF documents with all charts and
further comments by Randall Ashbourne The World
At Large is delivered in advance to Astrological Investing
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Randall Ashbourne is a former journalist and political strategist
residing in Australia. *QHT Technical Charts created using Quick
Harmonic Trader Software, by P.A.S. Astro-Soft, Inc. makers
of Galactic Investor Astrology software.
***
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