.The World At Large
Week beginning November 23, 2008
by Randall Ashbourne

Astrological conditions affecting stock markets combined with technical analysis

Click here for a printable version of Week beginning November 23 report including all QHT planetarty line charts and technical charts in PDF format.

"Stock markets around the world are rearing to rally – but it may well be a case of premature expectation."

Your memory is not playing tricks, dear reader; the above was the opening line of last week’s report – a report which finished with the words: “… I remain deeply sceptical and openly suspicious.”

That was then and this is now. Stock markets may have made THE bottom of this Bear, or at least this leg of the Bear, on Friday.

Prices in various worldwide indices have hit price levels which appear to have overreached to the downside.

In normal circumstances we would now be about to embark on a sharp rally; in normal circumstances we could be assured of a cyclical rally lasting at least 90 days and recovering a significant proportion of the entire downturn from late last year.

These are, of course, not “normal” circumstances and markets will continue to remain both volatile and dangerous.

However, as we come to the charts, we will take a close look at two indices – the S&P 500 and the ASX 200 – to get some guidance as to where we go from here.

The biggest danger is that the rally I believe started on Friday will be of only first or second degree – ie, 1 to 4 days, or 7 to 12 days.

There is still that period in mid-December filled with strongly negative astrological conditions as the Sun, Mercury and Mars repeat T-square patterns to the Saturn/Uranus opposition.

This week is also filled with strong astrological energy – with the Sun and Mercury now joining Mars in Sagittarius, Venus trining Saturn and sextiling Uranus, Mercury conjuncting Mars, Pluto re-entering Capricorn and Uranus going to Direct motion.

And we also have a New Moon in Sagittarius.

Overall, Sagittarian energy, which can provoke strong moves in stock markets, is very much front-and-centre in the week ahead.

Let’s go to the charts:

ASX Weekly[click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

In last week’s report, we looked in detail at the ASX 200 because of my concern it was telling us the rally which looked as if it wanted to get started, was a case of “premature expectation”.

And we looked at this chart, where somewhat pessimistically, I laid out the downside price targets – expecting, actually, we might not hit them until mid-December!

As we can see, the targets were met and exceeded, though the ASX rebounded strongly on Friday to close out the week at the 50% drop from the High mark.

We also, last week, looked at a number of planetary price charts where I expressed my concern that a 1st Harmonic Neptune line was acting as a magnet to pull prices down even further than the price targets listed on the technical chart.

Now, while last week was scary, it was actually quite reassuring – because while the major indices are breaking a lot of technical “rules”, the Heavens Above are giving us a good idea of what is likely to happen next.

ASX 200 Neptune, Uranus & Saturn[click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

Don’t let all that astrological spaghetti worry you, dear reader.

Last week, I showed the Heliocentric Neptune lines to make the point about what we should be worried about. The Helio Neptune price target was 3250. I explained last week there’s not a lot of difference between Heliocentric lines and Geocentric ones, except the latter are wavy because of the “Retrospect” factor.

Here, we can see the ASX 200 bottomed to the dollar at Geocentric 1st Harmonic Neptune, a line I’d indicated I thought needed to be hit to stop this Bear because the index had topped out at 1st Harmonic Neptune.

We can also see from the long tail on the price bar, the index rebounded strongly after hitting this line.

And it’s why I believe we may have hit THE bottom – at last!

The Neptune lines on this chart are grey and they’re set at 30 degrees. Please use the enlarge button on your reader and study this chart carefully – because the bouncebacks are also likely to stop at Neptune lines, given the historical context which will be obvious
by studying the chart closely.

S&P 500 Neptune[click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

Before continuing our analysis of the ASX 200, we’ll take a similar look at Wall Street’s main index, the 500.

We’ve been discussing how 1st Harmonic Neptune has been dragging this index down, too.

In showing the planetary chart last week, along with the technical ones, I had a red horizontal line at the bottom of the last Bear – at a price of 788, a full 50% drop from last year’s High.

But I warned the specific Neptune line was now actually at a lower price than in 2002 and its price was “around 760”. The index broke the line on Friday and hit 740 before rebounding strongly to end the week around 800.

Now, given we are in very unusual circumstances, there is a chance Wall Street may collapse even further, though the yellow Uranus lines, 1st Harmonic, should stop the drop.

But … this index has a long, long history of bouncing up and down from these exact Neptune planetary lines. And we just hit the Deusie!

ASX 200 [click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

Okay, I’ve shown those Neptune charts for both indices to explain why I’ve been so negative for the past few weeks – and to explain why I’m now becoming cautiously optimistic again.

You’ve been incredibly patient, dear reader, with my foible of insisting that the ASX and the Nasdaq are the only indices to be trusted as “leading” indicators. Well, the ASX was right again.

I’ve connected the two previous bottoms with a red trendline and it shows the highmomentum break which occurred last Thursday and Friday. The index now has to break through the downtrend line immediately to the topside … and follow the new blue trendline upwards.

There will be strong resistance at 3724 (the previous Low) and at 3960, give or take a few dollars.

But, if a rally did, in fact, get underway on Friday, I’d expect at least the first two price gaps to be filled before we fall in a hole again.

S&P 500 [click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

Now, let’s return to Wall Street.

We’ve had crossovers in the CCI and Stochastics signal lines, though both have occurred in Bearish territory.

There’s not a great deal to be learned from this chart, except where the major horizontal and downtrend resistance has to be faced as the index tries to recover ground.

The technical charts should be used in conjunction with the Neptune chart where I’ve marked all the potential Neptunian stopping points between the probable bottom (A) and the maximum rally I think we could expect in the medium-term (marked with a circled
B).

Now, let’s look at the weekly:

500 Weekly [click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

Please understand that I’m suggesting the bottom of the Bear occurred on Friday only because of the planetary charts. As you know, I’ve been concerned for several weeks that those lines needed to be hit before we could even think about calling an end to the Bear – or, if the Doomsday Scenario is underway, at least this leg of the Bear.

But they have now been hit … the indices, as would be expected, rebounded off them with a fast move, backed by a lot of volume.

Technically, there is little strong evidence to back my cautious opinion. The MACD is bloody awful!

There is very, very slight positive divergence in the Stochastics and the CCI indicators. But, there is nothing here which screams “Buy”.

Nor does the monthly picture send Pollyanna prisms of light and joy swirling through my consciousness.

500 Monthly [click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing when viewing in the PDF format)

There is, actually, another faint trace of positive divergence – the faster, blue CCI is turning upwards without having sunk to a lower-level through, even though the red line did.

Stochastics are awful; the MACD signals can go a lot, lot deeper into negative territory.

The technical picture on both the weekly and monthly charts loudly proclaims this Bear ain’t done – and won’t be done for quite a while.

Also technically, however, this is precisely the point where we would expect the “bounce from the obvious”.

One more thing … the very distant outside chance that the break of the previous Bear Lows, and of that 1st Harmonic Neptune line, was a “false break”. I warned last week, especially on the ASX charts, that real false breaks are followed immediately by a sharp
move in the opposite direction from the break.

DJI [click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing in the PDF format)

Ditto with the venerable Dow Industrials.

We will learn immediately – especially with Sagittarian volatility in the mix – whether indices worldwide will launch into rally mode.

The DJI snapped back to the upside of its near-term downtrend channel late Friday.

This lower Low was necessary from an Elliott Wave point-of-view to give a clear fivewave structure to complete this final … well, hopefully final … Bear downleg.

This quick break below horizontal Support should now produce a sharp rally. Because of the December negativity, it may be short-lived and we will need to be careful it doesn’t stall out in the extreme high-energy astrological zone on Thursday/Friday with the New
Moon, Pluto re-entry to Capricorn, and Uranus Direct station.

The alternative is a further slump, maybe all the way to the Venus/Jupiter conjunction in early December.

S&P 500 [click for complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing in the PDF format)

And the reason I put that alternative forward is this chart.

You know since the peak on election day, as Venus formed a T-square to the exact Saturn/Uranus opposition, I’ve worried about how long it was going to follow the 1st Harmonic Venus mirror line down.

We know from the Neptune charts, it has hit and bounced from 1st Harmonic Neptune – and that Neptune is key to big picture movements.

The only thing that worries me is there are no planetary price lines immediately nearby for the index to climb. Until the price clearly and decisively breaks to the other side of downtrending Venus, even lower prices are possible.

It’s not strictly necessary to have prices precisely follow a standard planetary line, but it would be nice to see that Venus influence broken before it drags the price all the way into the Venus/Jupiter conjunction crossing point.

The fast RSI 3 indicator is confirming the potential for a rally to break Venus’ hold, but the danger remains of a first-degree uptrend which fails by mid-week.

Nasdaq [click for chart - and the complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing in the PDF format)

The Nasdaq Composite needs to overcome both diagonal and horizontal resistance to go into rally mode.

Confirming at least the possibility … the CCI has not broken its positive divergence line and has given a Buy signal.

Mild agreement from the Stochastics and there’s a chance the MACD could give a positive crossover in the next few days.

FTSE [click for chart - and the complete printable PDF report including all charts]

(Note: charts can be zoomed in for larger viewing in the PDF format)

And nothing terribly encouraging from the FTSE to aid our hopes for a rally. In fact, all the indicators are actually a bit negative, given the deeper troughs.

This weekend’s report is shorter than normal because I have to make a trip to Cambodia tomorrow.

Last week, I was deeply sceptical and openly suspicious about the chances for a rally.

This week, despite a lack of strong technical evidence, I am mildly optimistic that we might finally have found THE bottom.

Yes, it may be broken and, quite possibly, it will be retested. We know what needs to happen immediately if a rally started on Friday and we can see from the technical charts the barriers which need to be broken. And we have Neptunian price targets, as well as technical ones, like the gaps which need to be filled in the Nasdaq and the ASX 200.

But to be in rally mode, even short-term, there must now be immediate follow-through to the upside – and with all the Sagittarian energy to the fore, the moves, whether up or down, can easily be “exaggerated”.

Good luck - RA

Click to download the World Week Beginning November 23, 2008 Report with all charts and comments. (PDF format)

*NOTE: Jeanne Long, professional trader and a leader in the research of financial astrology, was a student of the works of W.D. Gann. She has authored several books on financial astrology and developed the principles used in all the Galactic Investors Astrology software.  Randall's technical charts and the planetary price line charts included in this report are created using the Quick Harmonic Trader Software, by P.A.S. Astro-Soft, Inc. makers of Galactic Investor Astrology software.

The World At Large is delivered in advance to Astrological Investing Premium Member subscribers.  Randall Ashbourne is a former journalist and political strategist who trades the Australian market..

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